The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a notably active Atlantic hurricane season for 2024.
The 2024 annual NOAA forecast (opens in a new tab) suggests an 85% chance of an above-normal season, 10% chance of a near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season.
This forecast anticipates 17 to 25 named storms (defined by exceeding 39 mph wind velocity), with 8 to 13 becoming hurricanes (exceeding 74 mph wind velocity), and 4 to 7 potentially reaching major hurricane status (Category 3, 4, or 5). The agency expresses 70% confidence in these projections. Key contributing factors include near-record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, ongoing La Niña conditions, and weaker trade winds, which create an environment conducive to storm formation and intensification.
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook (NOAA)
NOAA expects 12 to 17 named storms (defined by exceeding 39 mph wind velocity), of which 5 to 9 have high-probability of becoming hurricanes (exceeding 74 mph wind velocity) and 1 to 4 major hurricanes (which include hurricanes of category 3 and higher or exceeding 111 mph wind velocity).
NOAA emphasizes the importance of preparedness for residents in hurricane-prone areas. This includes developing and practicing emergency plans, assembling emergency supply kits, and staying informed through reliable sources such as NOAA and local weather services. To support these efforts, NOAA has enhanced its forecasting capabilities and public communication.
Among the improvements are new prediction models designed to increase accuracy and advanced flood mapping to better predict storm surge inundation. The agency has also expanded its advisories to include Spanish-language updates, ensuring broader accessibility and communication. Additionally, upgrades in observational tools, such as buoys and underwater gliders, are enhancing data collection and storm monitoring.
The role of climate change is significant in the increased hurricane activity, with human-caused changes contributing to higher sea levels and warmer oceans. These factors exacerbate the potential impacts of hurricanes, including more severe storm surges and greater overall storm intensity.
NOAA’s forecast underscores the need for vigilance and proactive measures as the 2024 hurricane season approaches. The agency’s enhanced tools and ongoing efforts aim to provide accurate and timely information, helping communities stay prepared and mitigate the risks associated with the anticipated active season.
NOAA’s seasonal outlook provides an overall assessment of activity and does not specifically predict landfall events. An updated Atlantic seasonal outlook will be released in early August, just before the peak of the hurricane season.
2024 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names (NOAA)
The 2023 hurricane season (opens in a new tab) ended up meeting the higher end of the forecast. In numbers, the 2023 season gave us 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Most notably, 2023 season cost at least 18 fatalities and over USD 4.19 billion in damages.
We remind that the “normal season” was reclassified in 2021 guidelines due to the increased storm activity in the past two decades. Reports of normal seasons should therefore not be taken lightly. Both our website and NOAA recommend visiting FEMA’s portal Ready.gov (opens in a new tab) to learn how to prepare for hurricanes and downloading the FEMA mobile phone app (opens in a new tab), which sends its users timely alerts of upcoming storms. We urge you to also consider flood insurance to protect your household and spread hurricane awareness in your community. It is crucial not to forget to check the proper functioning of your portable generator or consider purchasing one if you don’t already have it as an essential tool for emergency preparedness.
Annual reports for Eastern (opens in a new tab) and Central Pacific region (opens in a new tab) have also been issued.
